Stock assessment of Pacific sardine for 1998 with management recommendations for 1999

The primary goal of sardine management as directed by the California Fish and Game Code is rehabilitation of the resource with an added objective of maximizing sustained harvest. Accordingly, the Code states that the annual sardine quota can be set at an amount greater than 1,000 tons, providing that the level of take allows for continued increase in the spawning population. We estimated the sardine population size within the range of the fishery and survey data (Ensenada, Baja California to San Francisco, California) to have been 1,182,881 short tons on July 1, 1998. Our estimate was based on output from a modified version of the integrated stock assessment model called CANSAR (Deriso et al. 1996). CANSAR is a forward-casting, age-structured analysis using fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data to obtain annual estimates of sardine abundance, year-class strength and age-specific fishing mortality for 1983 through the first semester of 1998. Non-linear least-squares criteria are used to find the best fit between model estimates and input data. Questions about stock structure and range extent remain major sources of uncertainty in assessing current sardine population biomass. Recent survey results and anecdotal evidence suggest increased sardine abundance in the Pacific Northwest and areas offshore from central and southern California. It is difficult to determine if those fish were part of the stock available to the California fishery. Last year, in an attempt to address this problem, the original CANSAR model was reconfigured into a Two-Area Migration Model (CANSAR-TAM; Hill et al. 1998) which accounted for sardine lost to the areas of the fishery and abundance surveys due to population expansion and net emigration. While the model includes guesses and major assumptions about net emigration and recruitment, it provides an estimate which is likely closer to biological reality than original CANSAR assessments. Corroborative results from a new, preliminary sardine stock assessment model, 'SAM', are also presented in this report. Based on the 1998 estimate of age 1+ biomass within the range of the fishery and survey data, and a proposed harvest formula in the draft Coastal Pelagic Species Fishery Management Plan (Amendment 8), we recommend a 1999 sardine harvest quota of 132,800 tons for the California fishery. The 1999 quota is a significant increase from the final 1998 sardine harvest quota for California of 48,000 tons. (93pp.